Political Risk: Widening Regional Anti-Terror Strategy

BMI View: Efforts to promote a moderate interpretation of Islam represent a widening of anti-terrorism strategy in North Africa. However, we do not expect it to have a significant impact on political risk in the short to medium term, with unemployment and poverty remaining more important risk factors.

Governments in North Africa, most notably Morocco and Algeria, appear to be taking a more proactive approach in their attempts to curb the influence of radical Islam. While we do not expect any let up in the pursuit, by their respective security services, of those suspected of involvement in terrorist activity, both countries are looking at ways of reducing the appeal of radical groups by encouraging a more moderate interpretation of Islam.

The main vehicle for this has so far been the promotion of Sufism, a branch of Islam that claims to encourage tolerance and peace. However, we highlight the danger that these efforts could be interpreted as just another attempt by governments to control the political and religious landscape, risking a potential backlash. Furthermore, we maintain our view that two of the biggest factors in driving support for militant groups are unemployment and poverty, which remain major challenges for regional governments.

Terrorist Threat Ever Present

We recently highlighted the resurgence in deadly attacks carried out by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Algeria (see Military Ambush Signals Potential Conflict Escalation, June 25). While security services claim to be slowly but surely eradicating AQIM's bases and power structure, small-scale attacks and ambushes on military and police targets remain a regular occurrence in Algeria. The situation in Morocco and Tunisia is far more stable, although both have suffered large-scale, well-publicised attacks in the past (in Casablanca in 2003 and on the Tunisian island of Djerba in 2002).

Tunisia Outperforms Its Neighbours

North Africa - Political Risk Ratings

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Score out of 100; Source: BMI

Nevertheless, the authorities in both countries remain concerned about the potential for future attacks, and about recruitment efforts by militant groups on their soil. In recent years, several Moroccans have been charged with involvement in terrorist acts in Europe (most notably the 2004 Madrid train bombings), while Islamist groups in Tunisia are known to have supplied fighters to Iraq to fight in the Sunni insurgency against US forces there. In early July, nine people (including two air force officers) were arrested in Tunisia on suspicion of plotting attacks on US servicemen during joint military exercises. There is also the threat of AQIM, which is seeking to expand its influence across North Africa, and is thought to have established desert training camps across the region, including in Mauritania and Mali.

This terrorist threat is reflected in our political risk ratings for the region. In the security threats component of our rating, Algeria scores just five out of 10, reflecting our view that isolated movements fighting a small-scale guerrilla war are able to limit government control in some areas (most notably, parts of the Kabylia region, where the bulk of attacks on state targets have taken place). Morocco receives the same score, although this reflects the ongoing calls for secession by the Polisario Front in Western Sahara in addition to the threat from Islamist militants. Tunisia scores 8 out of 10; a fairly high score, but one that still acknowledges the existence of 'ongoing systemic terrorist activity', which requires the intervention of security forces.

Engaging In The Information War

Until now, government efforts to stamp out militant activity have tended to involve mass arrests of those suspected of involvement with outlawed groups. In Tunisia, more than 1,000 people are thought to have been jailed since the start of the Iraq war on charges of joining or aiding the insurgency there, while thousands were detained in Morocco following the 2003 Casablanca bombings. However, efforts are now expanding from the military to the information arena, as the authorities highlight the need to tackle the appeal of radical groups from the bottom up, rather than just arresting those that have already become involved in militant activity.

In Morocco, this has taken the form of increased government regulation of mosques and control over the training of imams. The state is planning to send around 1,500 supervisors to towns and rural areas to monitor the sermons of local imams, in order to ensure compliance with the government-sanctioned brand of moderate Islam, which also emphasises respect for King Mohammed VI and his role as leader of Morocco's Muslims (the King claims to be a descendent of the prophet Mohammed). Only the state-approved Senior Council of Ulemas is authorised to issue religious decrees, or fatwas. Since last year, numerous religious schools linked to Sheikh Mohammed Maghraoui, a religious figure thought to be supported financially by Saudi Arabia, have been closed down after he issued a decree that girls as young as nine could marry, an opinion that contradicts Moroccan civil law.

In conjunction with the establishment of state-sanctioned training schools for imams, the Moroccan government is also actively promoting the Sufi strand of Islam, which it views as a more moderate alternative to the Salafist leanings of many militant groups. In mid-July, the state organised a meeting of around 1,000 Sufi adherents from 50 countries worldwide, to discuss the creation of an international Sufi organisation. In a statement, the Ministry of Islamic Affairs said that it was 'seeking to draw inspiration from the spiritual values of Sufism and come up with innovative approaches to educating Muslims'.

This approach also appears to be gaining ground in Algeria, where a new state-owned television and radio station have been created with a view to promoting Sufi doctrine. The media coverage reflects a desire to provide a counterpoint to the huge range of more extremist interpretations of Islam available on the internet. Mohamed Idir Mechnana, an official at the Ministry of Religious Affairs, was quoted by Reuters as saying that the government was 'doing a lot to encourage people to come back to our traditional Islam: a peaceful, tolerant and open-minded Islam'. He added that the Salafi strand of Islam, widely practised in Saudi Arabia 'doesn't take into consideration the particular nature of Algeria'.

Unforeseen Consequences?

Urban Unemployment Presents A Risk

Morocco - Unemployment (%)

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Source: HCP

While these strategies signal a more holistic approach to the problem of home-grown extremism, we believe there is a danger that government control of religious affairs, if seen as being too overbearing or restrictive, could actually have the opposite effect. Indeed, state control over political and religious practice in Algeria was a contributing factor to the rising popularity, during the 1980s and early 1990s, of Islamist groups, who waged civil war against the government following the cancellation of the 1992 elections that they were widely expected to win. Indeed, some elements in the Islamist faction (such as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) which grew out of the Armed Islamic Group (GIA)), explicitly positioned themselves against what they saw as the tainting of Islamic practice in Algeria by, among other things, the adoption of Sufi customs.

We are certainly not suggesting that the promotion of Sufism risks returning Algeria to civil war. As we have said previously, AQIM, now the dominant Islamist group in Algeria, does not have the popular support enjoyed by the Islamists in the early 1990s, with the bulk of the latter having laid down their arms and taken advantage of a government amnesty. However, with the number of Sufi adherents currently estimated at around 1.5mn, out of a population of almost 35mn, we wonder how much influence the government's strategy could have. Furthermore, giving financial and media support to one group does not change the fact that, thanks to the spread of satellite television and the internet, those who want it have easy access to alternative views.

We believe that throughout North Africa, this strategy is not enough by itself to reduce political risk. We would argue that unemployment remains the biggest risk to political stability. This is perhaps the biggest problem for Algeria, where an official unemployment rate of 11.3% hides a far higher rate among young people, but joblessness is also a problem in Morocco (9.6%) and Tunisia (14.1%). As the accompanying chart illustrates, unemployment is highest in Morocco's urban areas, and poor slums surrounding major cities are seen as a potential breeding ground for extremism. Faced with a lack of job opportunities, militant groups can appear as a way out for young people in the region, particularly if membership holds the promise of regular income and support for families. Until this problem is tackled, which also requires the dismantling of the financial networks that support groups such as AQIM, we do not anticipate any major change in the domestic terrorist threat in North Africa.